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Featured Strategy Trade ideas Algo V21/11 Trades-Own-Strategy Certified Trades-Own-Strategy Certification Hypothetical

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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
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Trades-Own-Strategy Certification

This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.

Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started 01/03/2024
Most recent certification approved 1/3/24 12:47 ET
Trades at broker Interactive Brokers (server 2 / Stocks, Option, Futures)
Scaling percentage used 100%
# trading signals issued by system since certification 104
# trading signals executed in manager's Interactive Brokers (server 2 / Stocks, Option, Futures) account 104
Percent signals followed since 01/03/2024 100%
This information was last updated 11/24/24 11:53 ET

Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.

Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 01/03/2024, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

You may be interested to learn more technical details about how Collective2 calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.

Spire
(146841213)

Powered by BrokerTransmit.
Read important disclosures.

Created by: Michael_S Michael_S
Started: 12/2023
Stocks
Last trade: 18 days ago
Trading style: Equity Hedged Equity

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $99.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Hedged Equity
Category: Equity

Hedged Equity

Core holding of long equities hedged at all times with short sales of stocks and/or stock index options.
31.3%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(6.1%)
Max Drawdown
21
Num Trades
66.7%
Win Trades
9.9 : 1
Profit Factor
66.7%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023                                                                             (0.1%)(0.1%)
2024+1.1%+4.0%+6.9%(0.4%)(0.2%)+3.2%+7.8%+0.9%+1.8%(4%)+7.3%      +31.6%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 104 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
8/2/24 15:05 UPRO PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500 LONG 555 83.38 10/30 14:59 86.15 0.6%
Trade id #148811513
Max drawdown($741)
Time8/5/24 0:00
Quant open90
Worst price61.71
Drawdown as % of equity-0.60%
 $1,525
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $11.10
7/25/24 10:36 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 916 19.63 10/4 12:47 19.69 0.33%
Trade id #148739891
Max drawdown($408)
Time7/29/24 0:00
Quant open916
Worst price19.18
Drawdown as % of equity-0.33%
 $43
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.32
7/25/24 10:32 DIA SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVER LONG 30 400.53 8/2 15:00 395.92 0.17%
Trade id #148739837
Max drawdown($209)
Time8/2/24 11:27
Quant open30
Worst price393.56
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
 ($139)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.60
7/25/24 10:22 QQQ POWERSHARES QQQ LONG 102 458.24 8/2 15:00 447.69 1.13%
Trade id #148739635
Max drawdown($1,404)
Time8/2/24 10:14
Quant open102
Worst price444.47
Drawdown as % of equity-1.13%
 ($1,078)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.04
1/3/24 13:27 VXZ IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN LONG 169 14.35 7/12 15:20 12.28 0.28%
Trade id #146891314
Max drawdown($309)
Time5/10/24 0:00
Quant open164
Worst price12.52
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
 ($352)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.38
5/1/24 10:06 GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES LONG 82 215.43 7/12 15:19 219.42 0.16%
Trade id #148061853
Max drawdown($175)
Time6/7/24 0:00
Quant open45
Worst price211.54
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
 $325
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.64
6/5/24 12:50 BTAL AGF US MARKET NEUT ANTI-BETA LONG 817 19.18 7/12 15:18 19.25 0.32%
Trade id #148337760
Max drawdown($364)
Time6/12/24 0:00
Quant open817
Worst price18.73
Drawdown as % of equity-0.32%
 $47
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.67
1/3/24 12:57 KMLM KRANESHARES TRUST LONG 2,215 29.03 7/12 15:17 29.45 1.09%
Trade id #146890900
Max drawdown($1,101)
Time1/25/24 0:00
Quant open1,600
Worst price28.05
Drawdown as % of equity-1.09%
 $880
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $44.30
1/3/24 13:09 UPRO PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500 LONG 470 65.81 7/12 15:15 80.94 0.25%
Trade id #146891183
Max drawdown($249)
Time1/5/24 0:00
Quant open175
Worst price51.59
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
 $7,101
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.40
1/3/24 12:47 UDOW PROSHARES ULTRAPRO DOW30 LONG 185 75.98 7/12 15:10 81.98 0.15%
Trade id #146890801
Max drawdown($144)
Time1/18/24 0:00
Quant open54
Worst price70.59
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
 $1,106
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.70
1/3/24 12:50 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 410 57.87 7/12 15:08 78.68 0.27%
Trade id #146890813
Max drawdown($273)
Time1/5/24 0:00
Quant open185
Worst price45.47
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
 $8,528
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.20
4/1/24 14:33 PFIX SIMPLIFY INTEREST RATE HEDGE ETF LONG 294 50.77 6/5 12:55 49.20 0.21%
Trade id #147775874
Max drawdown($236)
Time6/5/24 11:49
Quant open45
Worst price45.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
 ($468)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.88
4/1/24 14:46 COMT ISHARES GSCI COMMODITY DYNAMIC ROLL STRATEGY ETF LONG 335 27.17 6/5 12:54 26.77 0.14%
Trade id #147775990
Max drawdown($155)
Time6/4/24 0:00
Quant open165
Worst price26.23
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
 ($139)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.70
4/1/24 14:33 DGP POWERSHARES DB GOLD DOUBLE LON LONG 314 50.64 5/1 9:39 53.05 0.05%
Trade id #147775876
Max drawdown($59)
Time4/1/24 14:40
Quant open314
Worst price50.45
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 $750
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.28
1/3/24 13:12 UGL PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD LONG 450 61.99 4/1 14:22 73.48 1.66%
Trade id #146891214
Max drawdown($1,707)
Time2/14/24 0:00
Quant open450
Worst price58.20
Drawdown as % of equity-1.66%
 $5,159
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.00
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    12/29/2023
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $15,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    331.13
  • Age
    11 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    21
  • # Profitable
    14
  • % Profitable
    66.70%
  • Avg trade duration
    100.5 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    6.13%
  • drawdown period
    Aug 01, 2024 - Aug 05, 2024
  • Cumul. Return
    31.3%
  • Avg win
    $2,602
  • Avg loss
    $528.71
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $111,567
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $120,872
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    9.95:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    2.3
  • Sortino Ratio
    3.79
  • Calmar Ratio
    8.465
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    6.18%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.59210
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    25.15%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    34.6%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    0.20%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.05%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.313%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    36.9%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    0.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    461
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    950
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    936
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    902
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    Yes
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $529
  • Avg Win
    $2,603
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $3,701.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    12
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $36,436.000
  • # Winners
    14
  • Num Months Winners
    8
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    380
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    236589
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    7
  • % Winners
    66.7%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    144657.00
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    2410.95
  • Avg Trade Length
    100.5 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    18
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.38
  • Daily leverage (max)
    2.00
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.05
  • Beta
    0.49
  • Treynor Index
    0.16
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    1.09
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.01
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    0.626
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.404
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.433
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    2.155
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.24934
  • SD
    0.10441
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.38811
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.18244
  • df
    9.00000
  • t
    2.18004
  • p
    0.02859
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.07009
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.74286
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.18953
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.55441
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    11.78180
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    13.47190
  • Upside part of mean
    0.28511
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.03577
  • Upside SD
    0.12060
  • Downside SD
    0.02116
  • N nonnegative terms
    7.00000
  • N negative terms
    3.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    10.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.19375
  • Mean of criterion
    0.24934
  • SD of predictor
    0.10418
  • SD of criterion
    0.10441
  • Covariance
    0.00261
  • r
    0.24024
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.24078
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.20269
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01156
  • DF error
    8.00000
  • t(b)
    0.70000
  • p(b)
    0.25188
  • t(a)
    1.49796
  • p(a)
    0.08626
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.55242
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.03398
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10934
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.51472
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.03556
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.20269
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.24155
  • SD
    0.10171
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.37482
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.17028
  • df
    9.00000
  • t
    2.16790
  • p
    0.02916
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.08044
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.72702
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.19931
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.53987
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    11.36400
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    13.05340
  • Upside part of mean
    0.27747
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.03591
  • Upside SD
    0.11714
  • Downside SD
    0.02126
  • N nonnegative terms
    7.00000
  • N negative terms
    3.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    10.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.18703
  • Mean of criterion
    0.24155
  • SD of predictor
    0.10275
  • SD of criterion
    0.10171
  • Covariance
    0.00259
  • r
    0.24801
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.24551
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.19564
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01092
  • DF error
    8.00000
  • t(b)
    0.72411
  • p(b)
    0.24482
  • t(a)
    1.49482
  • p(a)
    0.08666
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.53634
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.02735
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.10617
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.49744
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.98390
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.19564
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02777
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03957
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00484
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01036
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    10.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98811
  • Quartile 1
    1.00034
  • Median
    1.01312
  • Quartile 3
    1.05029
  • Maximum
    1.06694
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99239
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00544
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.03290
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.05908
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04995
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1163.88000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00201
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -3.78497
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02486
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02489
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.01045
  • Quartile 1
    0.01093
  • Median
    0.01141
  • Quartile 3
    0.01189
  • Maximum
    0.01237
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01045
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.01237
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00096
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.30211
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.30926
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    24.99820
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    24.99820
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    7.81480
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.29690
  • SD
    0.10246
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.89764
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.88830
  • df
    233.00000
  • t
    2.73843
  • p
    0.00333
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.80411
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.98511
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.79788
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.97873
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.90040
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    11.86900
  • Upside part of mean
    0.71911
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.42221
  • Upside SD
    0.08438
  • Downside SD
    0.06059
  • N nonnegative terms
    131.00000
  • N negative terms
    103.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    234.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.23132
  • Mean of criterion
    0.29690
  • SD of predictor
    0.12621
  • SD of criterion
    0.10246
  • Covariance
    0.00778
  • r
    0.60133
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.48819
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.18400
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00673
  • DF error
    232.00000
  • t(b)
    11.46340
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    2.10565
  • p(a)
    0.01815
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.40428
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.57210
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.01183
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.35612
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.60817
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.18397
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.29150
  • SD
    0.10213
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.85417
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.84498
  • df
    233.00000
  • t
    2.69735
  • p
    0.00375
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.76114
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.94122
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.75504
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.93491
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.77570
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    11.72240
  • Upside part of mean
    0.71552
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.42402
  • Upside SD
    0.08358
  • Downside SD
    0.06104
  • N nonnegative terms
    131.00000
  • N negative terms
    103.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    234.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.22326
  • Mean of criterion
    0.29150
  • SD of predictor
    0.12628
  • SD of criterion
    0.10213
  • Covariance
    0.00777
  • r
    0.60242
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.48721
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.18273
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00667
  • DF error
    232.00000
  • t(b)
    11.49600
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    2.10126
  • p(a)
    0.01835
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.40371
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.57071
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.01139
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.35406
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.59831
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.18273
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00922
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01183
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00337
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00710
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    234.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97313
  • Quartile 1
    0.99785
  • Median
    1.00078
  • Quartile 3
    1.00407
  • Maximum
    1.04286
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99432
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99957
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00247
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00859
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00622
  • Number outliers low
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.01709
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98101
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.01709
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02271
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.46265
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00610
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01256
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.34848
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00574
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01018
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    26.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00001
  • Quartile 1
    0.00246
  • Median
    0.00615
  • Quartile 3
    0.01289
  • Maximum
    0.04445
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00125
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00366
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00780
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.02951
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01042
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.15385
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.03756
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.46181
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.03068
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03184
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -1.13166
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.04201
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.04470
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.36963
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.37631
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    8.46542
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    12.75180
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    31.81210
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.32181
  • SD
    0.11257
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.85883
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.84231
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    2.02150
  • p
    0.41271
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.05998
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.64699
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.04905
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.63556
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.79525
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    11.09690
  • Upside part of mean
    0.74472
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.42291
  • Upside SD
    0.09201
  • Downside SD
    0.06711
  • N nonnegative terms
    75.00000
  • N negative terms
    56.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.23133
  • Mean of criterion
    0.32181
  • SD of predictor
    0.13518
  • SD of criterion
    0.11257
  • Covariance
    0.00989
  • r
    0.65009
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.54134
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.19659
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00737
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    9.71710
  • p(b)
    0.11749
  • t(a)
    1.60984
  • p(a)
    0.41095
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43111
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.65156
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.04502
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.43820
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.59448
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.19659
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.31533
  • SD
    0.11213
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.81231
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.79605
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.98860
  • p
    0.41409
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.01428
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.59977
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00349
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.58862
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.65639
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.93430
  • Upside part of mean
    0.74047
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.42514
  • Upside SD
    0.09094
  • Downside SD
    0.06772
  • N nonnegative terms
    75.00000
  • N negative terms
    56.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.22212
  • Mean of criterion
    0.31533
  • SD of predictor
    0.13537
  • SD of criterion
    0.11213
  • Covariance
    0.00989
  • r
    0.65142
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.53959
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.19548
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00729
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    9.75170
  • p(b)
    0.11685
  • t(a)
    1.61021
  • p(a)
    0.41093
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.00900
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43011
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.64907
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.04471
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.43567
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.58440
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.19548
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01014
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01300
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00328
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00717
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97313
  • Quartile 1
    0.99840
  • Median
    1.00104
  • Quartile 3
    1.00396
  • Maximum
    1.04286
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99416
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99978
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00254
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00890
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00557
  • Number outliers low
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98101
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.02290
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02401
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.44114
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00540
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01133
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.41003
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00603
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01238
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    11.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00001
  • Quartile 1
    0.00721
  • Median
    0.00823
  • Quartile 3
    0.02689
  • Maximum
    0.04154
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00256
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00795
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02198
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.03527
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01968
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -3.82326
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.03894
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03899
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.76904
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.04350
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.04601
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -426867000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    4
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.37445
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.40951
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    9.85851
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    11.61150
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    31.50860

Strategy Description

Investment Philosophy
I believe the most effective way to generate market-beating returns is by (1) dynamically adapting to expected market behavior, (2) incorporating protective assets designed to reduce portfolio volatility and (3) adhering to sensible risk limits designed to mitigate extreme loss.

Asset Allocation
I expect equities will comprise about half of portfolio capital over time with the balance allocated to diversifying and protective assets as needed. In the short term, these proportions can fluctuate widely depending on my research insights. The portfolio is re-balanced roughly once per month. Some ETFs use leverage.

Idea Generation
The research process is multi-disciplinary in nature. It utilizes top-down, bottoms-up, qualitative and quantitative methods to determine overall market ‘risk appetite’. This process helps establish optimal proportions of capital amongst investment categories and positions. These views are updated monthly.

Portfolio Construction
I construct the portfolio by evaluating markets and combining assets and strategies pursuant to established risk limits. This is reflected in the following portfolio parameters:

1. Instruments: U.S. listed ETFs, multi-asset class, 12 in total (many use derivatives and leverage)
2. Directionality: only takes long positions in ETFs; some non-equity ETFs may have longs or shorts
3. Geographic Focus: U.S. for equities, mostly G7 countries for other asset classes
4. Portfolio Leverage: portfolio does not borrow, uses margin or go short any ETFs
5. ETF Leverage: sum of maximum expected gross exposure across underlying ETFs = ~3X
6. Average Capital Allocation: Equities ~50% (range 0-70%), balance to FX, Bonds, Commodities and VIX
7. Restrictions: only long positions allowed in equity and VIX ETFs
8. Rebalance Frequency: approximately once per month (generally around the turn of the month)
9. Estimated Portfolio Turnover: approximately ~100-300% per year
10. Estimated Long-Term Average Realized Volatility: annualized standard deviation ~25%

Performance Expectations
I am striving for a return profile analogous to a long call option on equities. Dynamic beta management will ultimately drive returns, alpha and relative drawdowns, which I expect to be competitive versus broad equity indices over time. Because I use an adaptive investing approach with a focus on generating asymmetric returns, I expect that my investment decisions will maximize ROI over time frames that include at least one bull market and one bear market.

Suitability
The portfolio uses significant leverage and concentrated positions. Therefore, it is only suitable for investors with a very high risk-tolerance, a long investment horizon and are prepared to lose some or all of their investment. Only a small fraction of any investor’s assets should be allocated to the program.
Trade this strategy at Interactive Brokers

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2023-12-29
Suggested Minimum Capital
$15,000
Rank at C2 %
Top 6.4%
Rank # 
#63
# Trades
21
# Profitable
14
% Profitable
66.7%
Net Dividends
$379
Correlation S&P500
0.592
Sharpe Ratio
2.30
Sortino Ratio
3.79
Beta
0.49
Alpha
0.05
Leverage
1.38 Average
2.00 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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